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Oakland’s ranked-choice voting problem

by Harry Roth

Last Tuesday, Oakland voters voted overwhelmingly to recall their mayor, Sheng Thao. She was elected two years ago using ranked-choice voting and has largely been blamed for the increase in crime and disorder in the city. This was the first successful recall of a mayor in Oakland’s history and passed by a margin of 61.6% to 38.4%. The recall wasn't just an indictment of the failures of progressive governance; it’s an indictment of ranked-choice voting.

Sheng Thao's win in 2022 likely wouldn’t have happened without RCV. We often talk about how the system creates winners out of losers by allowing the person who received the more second-place (or third-place, fourth-place, etc.) votes to win. Well, that’s exactly what happened when Sheng Thao squeaked out a 677-vote win.

Her opponent, Oakland City Councilmen Loren Taylor, received the most first-place votes but failed to get over 50% in the initial round. Because of that, Sheng Thao was able to win in the ninth round. And while she had 50.3% of the remaining votes, that total was just 45.6% of the votes cast in the first round (11,787 ballots were “exhausted.”)

Since then, the quality of life for Oakland residents has decreased dramatically. Reports of violent incidents increased 21% last year compared to 2022, and robberies jumped 38%. Instead of aggressively targeting violent gang members, she focused on ceasefires and publishing misleading crime statistics to take the heat off herself.

Last June, Sheng Thao’s home was raided by the FBI as part of an investigation into an influence peddling operation. Her scandals and failure to lead the city led to the campaign “Oakland United to recall Sheng Thao” collecting more than 40,000 signatures to initiate a recall. The recall campaign was supported by the Oakland Police Officers’ Association, former Mayor Libby Schaaf, prominent local business leaders, and even Elon Musk. 

So, there you have it. Ranked-choice voting, a system promoted as a way to elect popular, moderate candidates, gave Oakland a far-left, unpopular, and possibly corrupt mayor, who is now the first mayor to be recalled in the city’s history. There is talk that Oakland’s next move will be to repeal ranked-choice voting. If not, they could end up right back where they started.

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